Filmmaker Daniel McCabe’s PBS-aired NOVA documentary examines the hit-and-miss pursuit of forecasting. Strangely, the proliferation of digital technology has failed to bring a greater degree of scientific accuracy to predicting the proverbial sure-bet. One of the most obvious examples of prediction is found in the synergy between casino gambling and mathematics, first considered by the 16th-century Italian mathematician Giancarlo Cardano. The most famous forecaster featured here is Billy Beane, whose use of analytics in running the Oakland A’s baseball team revolutionized the sport, as chronicled in both the book and film Moneyball. Beane is a joyful raconteur, whose explanations of statistics could encourage viewers to dive deeper into mathematical research. Indeed, Prediction by the Numbers tackles the subject with such a sense of enthusiasm that examinations of the mathematical theories of 17th-century Blaise Pascal and 18th-century Thomas Bayes come across not as arid academic topics but rather wondrous. On the more serious side, the film poses important questions about the impact of big data on forecasting and what that might mean for a wider society that puts too much faith in forecasting’s abilities. A fascinating, offbeat documentary, this is highly recommended. Aud: H, C, P. (P. Hall)
Prediction by the Numbers
(2018) 60 min. DVD: $24.99 ($54.99 w/PPR). PBS Video. SDH captioned. ISBN: 978-1-5317-0433-9. Volume 33, Issue 5
Prediction by the Numbers
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